Showalter Provides In-Depth Analysis On The Surge Of Stolen Bases In Major League Baseball.

Buck Showalter’s astute baseball mind is not easily fooled. While some may be puzzled by the recent surge in base stealing in Major League Baseball (MLB) over the past two seasons, the former four-time Manager of the Year understands the intricacies of teams’ success on the base paths.

Showalter, with his vast experience managing the New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, and recently the New York Mets, is a walking encyclopedia of baseball knowledge. Sitting at a table in a quiet restaurant at Newark Liberty International Airport during a brief layover, he eagerly delves into the subject, leaving no stone unturned.

According to Showalter, the rise in stolen bases is directly linked to MLB’s rule changes that have stripped pitchers of their most effective weapon – holding the ball. When a pitcher’s rhythm is disrupted, it gives the advantage to players on base. Showalter’s observations align with the data, as stolen base numbers reached a 36-year high in 2023, with 3,503 steals, marking a 41% increase since 2002. A staggering 80% success rate demonstrated the significance of baserunning in a team’s overall strategy.

Showalter, who now serves as an on-air analyst for MLB Network, brings his expertise to audiences, both in the TV studios and even at an airport restaurant. When asked if the increased base size from 15 square inches to 18 inches contributes to the rise in stolen bases, Showalter dismisses it, comparing the appearance of the bases to pizza boxes.

Instead, Showalter attributes the surge in stolen bases to the challenges faced by pitchers. With runners on base, pitchers have a strict 18-second time limit to deliver the pitch. Concerned about the ticking clock, many pitchers rush their delivery, giving baserunners a significant advantage. The introduction of a pitch timer not only led to increased stolen bases but also reduced the average duration of MLB games, shortening them by approximately 26 minutes compared to 2022 spring training.

Showalter emphasizes that stolen bases may have lost individual statistical value but remain a potent weapon to score runs. Notably, he imagines the incredible stolen base totals players like Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, and Willie McGee could have achieved under the current rules.

Currently, Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds leads MLB with 59 stolen bases, closely followed by Brice Turang of the Milwaukee Brewers with 33 steals.

As Showalter prepares to board his flight, he continues his analytical dissection of base stealing. He questions the emphasis on power-hitting philosophies and the lack of pitchouts in modern baseball. Showalter suggests relocating the clock that pitchers must adhere to, so baserunners cannot easily see it, disrupting their calculations. He highlights that stolen base success is less about skill and more about exploiting the pitcher’s time-consciousness. Even catchers known for their strong arms struggle to throw out runners, further supporting Showalter’s assertion.