In the past month, the bullish trend in the stock market has shown signs of hesitation and potential stall after a significant surge following the pandemic. The popular technology stocks, known as the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla), seem to have reached a point of exhaustion.
The strategy of diversification involves spreading investments across different asset classes to limit exposure to any one type of asset and reduce portfolio volatility over time.
The ratio between stock market value and GDP fluctuates due to stock market volatility, while GDP tends to grow more predictably and with less volatility. Currently, with a ratio of 202 percent, approximately 63.27 percent above the historical trend line (equivalent to 2.0 standard deviations), the stock market appears strongly overvalued relative to GDP.
The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, although useful, has limitations as it does not consider a company’s earnings or future earnings potential. Therefore, it should be used as one measurement among several, rather than as a standalone indicator. Refer to the S&P 500 Index chart below for further analysis.
A favorable price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is one that is lower than 1.0, indicating undervaluation. Conversely, PEG ratios higher than 1.0 are generally considered unfavorable and suggest overvaluation. Presently, the S&P 500 has a PEG ratio of 1.56.
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